Market State & Positioning
Today's market state and the system's resulting positioning posture.
The system evaluates market conditions and determines positioning — no discretionary input.
Evaluated daily at market close · Backtested to 1985
Market States
Broad signal alignment with strong trend confirmation. The system increases exposure.
Trend confirmation is developing with partial signal agreement. The system maintains selective exposure.
Signals are mixed with no clear directional dominance. The system reduces exposure.
Signal alignment weakens under elevated instability. The system shifts defensively.
The system is actively monitoring current market conditions.
System Positioning Output
The system's current state maps to the following allocation ranges.
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Approximate public bands. Exact target percentages with Insights subscription.
State Transition Matrix
Used by the system to model how market conditions evolve over time.
Across 41 years of monthly classifications, this is how often each state has transitioned to each next state. High diagonal values mean states are persistent; off-diagonal values show the paths the market typically takes.
| From ↓ · To → | Expansion | Trend | Neutral | Contraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | 72.7% | 3.8% | 23.5% | — |
| Trend | 56.0% | 40.0% | 4.0% | — |
| Neutral | 28.1% | 3.4% | 57.9% | 10.7% |
| Contraction | 2.2% | — | 40.0% | 57.8% |
Read across each row: given that the market is currently in state X, these are the historical probabilities of the next month's state. For example, an Expansion month transitions to another Expansion month 72.7% of the time — trending states persist.
41 Years of Market Intelligence
How the system has interpreted and responded to market conditions over time.
Relative time spent in each market state — no values shown.
This level of signal alignment has been observed frequently across past market cycles.
The system has adapted across multiple market cycles, including expansions, contractions, and high-volatility events.
Monthly Market State History
See how market states shifted month-by-month — and where major turning points occurred.
Powered by 41 years of market analysis (1985–2025).
The same system powers positioning across multiple markets and leverage levels.
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